9/18/2023 0 Comments Logo notion icon![]() “We have sent a clear message to Moscow and to Minsk that Nato is there to protect every ally and every inch of Nato territory,” he said.Ĭoncerns about the impact Prigozhin and his Wagner cut-throats could have on Lukashenko’s ability to threaten Nato have been strengthened by the recent arrival of Russian tactical nuclear missiles in Belarus. ![]() Meanwhile, Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance was ready to defend itself against any threat from “Moscow or Minsk” and would agree to strengthen its defences at next week’s meeting of Nato leaders in Vilnius next week – focusing particularly on nations bordering Belarus. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has warned that if Wagner’s “serial killers” are allowed to operate from Belarus, neighbouring countries could face “even greater danger of instability”. This possibility has already prompted several Nato leaders to flag up the potential fall-out from Belarus’s role in the recent Russian tumult. This is unlikely, however, given Lukashenko’s reluctance to become directly involved in the conflict, not least because of the strong anti-war sentiment among the Belarusian population.Ī far more worrying outcome, from Nato’s perspective, would be if the Wagner remnants were integrated into the regular Belarusian ranks, thereby giving the country’s military an upgrade in its war-fighting capabilities. Wagner’s presence in Belarus, which Putin used as the launchpad for his original invasion to capture Kyiv last year, has inevitably raised concerns that the mercenaries might utilise the country as a base to launch a fresh assault on Ukraine. “There is a fence, everything is available, erect your tents,” was his less-than-enticing offer. Lukashenko, meanwhile, has offered the Wagner veterans who have arrived in his country an abandoned military base for their use. ![]() While Prigozhin’s arrival in Belarus draws to a close a tumultuous few days in modern Russian history, it also has potentially wide-reaching security implications, especially for neighbouring Nato countries Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.įor the moment, it is unclear just how many of the 25,000 Wagner mercenaries Prigozhin claimed were backing his “mutiny” have travelled to Belarus: Putin has offered those who have remained in Russia the option of joining the established Russian military and security forces, or returning home. The ploy worked, to the extent that Prigozhin and some of his mercenaries have now gone into exile in Belarus, allowing Putin to make the somewhat specious claim that Russia’s security forces had succeeded in defending their motherland, “de facto stopping a civil war in its tracks”. ![]() The key moment in the crisis supposedly came when Lukashenko managed to make contact with Prigozhin, whom he quickly realised was suffering some form of psychological breakdown, and offered him a safe haven in Belarus in return for abandoning his “mutiny”. While Lukashenko, a former manager of a Soviet farm collective, is clearly relishing his new-found celebrity as the man who “saved” Russia from a bitter civil war, the implications of his involvement could have far-reaching consequences for the security of Nato’s eastern flank.Īccording to Lukashenko’s version of events, it was down to his personal intervention with Putin that the Russian leader was persuaded not to “wipe out” Yevgeny Prigozhin as the latter’s self-styled army of Wagner mercenaries advanced to within 120 miles of Moscow. The days when we regarded Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko as nothing more than a tinpot dictator, who heeded Vladimir Putin’s every beck and call, can be consigned to history now that he has both a nuclear arsenal and an army of Wagner mercenaries at his disposal. ![]()
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